Yesterday, the Vermont State Senate voted 26-4 to approve a same-sex marriage bill.
Once passed, the state can start issuing out marriage licenses to gay and lesbians on September 1st.
In Vermont, each bill receives three readings to reconsider or amend an item. This same-sex marriage bill is at its third hearing.
And this third and last hearing could go two ways:
First and best case scenario: The marriage bill will receive a third reading and vote in the Senate. The result will be a filibuster-proof vote in the Senate. Then, the House would vote and pass the bill by a filibuster proof majority, next it would go to the Governor's office. Vermont's Republican Governor Jim Douglas stated he does NOT support gay marriage, but with filibuster proof majority, his choices would be limited to a protest veto that would be overturned by the Vermont Congress. The Governor can sign the bill or not sign allowing the bill to become law.
Second, a most likely scenario: The bill passes the Senate with a filibuster-proof majority and passes the House, but not by a wide enough margin to overturn a veto from Douglas. So the bill sits on the Governor's desk. He has never said what he would do if something like this happened. Surely every Republican will be calling him to veto the bill. Douglas does not work for the Republican operatives, he works for the voters. Douglas has shown an evolving attitude towards gay and lesbian rights: we saw in 2007, he signed a landmark discrimination bill into law after he vetoed it earlier. Would the Governor want to leave a legacy as the first Governor to veto a gay marriage bill?
More than likely yes. In that case, supporters would have to find votes in the House to overturn the veto. Some type of outside march and protest could help in getting the bill passed.
Third, Vermont gathered so fast and quick to address and pull a bill together allowing gays and lesbians to marry. The Vermont Congress deserves kudos for refuting the argument that gay marriage was a taboo or a difficult issue to tackle in this economic climate. We give applaud that in less than a month the Vermont Congress had hearings, discussions and meetings to put same-sex marriage issue up to a vote. More than likely, the bill will pass because it has garnered support from the House and the Senate thus far. And these two political bodies don't want their energy and efforts to be for nothing.
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